长期投资者的关键问题
由马克F. 托莱多,CFA2017年12月14日
Focusing on what you can control can lead to a better investment experience.
Whether you’ve been investing for decades or are just getting started, 在你投资之旅的某个时刻，你可能会问自己下面的一些问题. Trying to answer these questions may be intimidating. 虽然这不是一个详尽的列表，但希望它能阐明一些关键原则, 使用数据和推理，从长远来看，这可能有助于提高你投资成功的几率.
1. What sort of competition do I face as an investor?
The market is an effective information-processing machine. 数以百万计的市场参与者每天买卖证券，他们带来的实时信息有助于确定价格.
这意味着竞争很激烈，任何人都很难预测市场价格, even professional money managers (see question 2 for more on this). 不过，这对投资者来说是个好消息. 而不是将投资策略建立在寻找定价“不正确”的证券上,相反，投资者可以依靠市场价格信息来帮助建立他们的投资组合(参见问题5)。.
2. What are my chances of picking an investment fund that survives and outperforms?
Flip a coin and your odds of getting heads or tails are 50/50. 从历史上看, 选择一只15年后仍在左右的投资基金的几率是差不多的. 至于表现出众，可能性更大. 市场的定价权不利于那些试图通过选股或择时获利的基金经理. One needn’t look further than real-world results to see this. 基于的研究, 在过去15年里，只有17%的美国股票共同基金和18%的固定收益基金幸存下来，并超过了它们的基准.
Source: *Mutual Fund Landscape 2017, Dimensional Fund Advisors. 研究的重要细节见附录. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
3. 如果我选择一只基金是因为它过去表现出色，这是否意味着它将来也会表现出色?
Some investors select mutual funds based on past returns. 然而, 研究表明，在过去五年回报率最高的四分之一(25%)的大多数基金在接下来的一年里并没有保持最高四分之一的排名. In other words, past performance offers little insight into a fund’s future returns.
Source: *Mutual Fund Landscape 2017, Dimensional Fund Advisors. 研究的重要细节见附录. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
4. Do I have to outsmart the market to be a successful investor?
Financial markets have rewarded long-term investors. People expect a positive return on the capital they invest, 和历史, 股票和债券市场带来的财富增长足以抵消通胀的影响. Instead of fighting markets, let them work for you.
美国小型股指数是CRSP 6-10指数. 美国大型股是S&P 500指数. Long-Term Government Bonds is the IA SBBI US LT Govt TR USD, Treasury Bills is the IA SBBI US 30 Day TBill TR USD, US Inflation is measured as changes in the US Consumer Price Index.
5. 有没有更好的方法来建立作品集?
Academic research has identified these equity and fixed income dimensions, which point to differences in expected returns among securities. 而不是试图猜测市场价格, 相反，投资者可以通过围绕这些维度构建投资组合来追求更高的预期回报.
Relative price is measured by the price-to-book ratio; value stocks are those with lower price-to-book ratios. 盈利能力是一种衡量当前盈利能力的方法，其基础信息来自个别公司的损益表.
6. 国际投资适合我吗?
Diversification helps reduce risks that have no expected return, but diversifying only within your home market may not be enough. Instead, global diversification can broaden your investment opportunity set. 通过持有一个全球多元化的投资组合, investors are well positioned to seek returns wherever they occur.
S&截至12月31日的P 500指数和MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index)可投资市场指数(IMI), 2016. 的年代&P数据由Standard提供 & Poor 's Index Services Group.
7. Will making frequent changes to my portfolio help me achieve investment success?
十大娱乐老平台很难(如果不是不可能的话)知道哪个细分市场会在不同时期表现出众.
相应的, it’s better to avoid market timing calls and other unnecessary changes that can be costly. 允许对短期市场状况的情绪或观点影响长期投资决策可能会导致令人失望的结果.
美国大型股是S&P 500指数. US Large Cap Value is the Russell 1000 Value Index. 美国小型股指数是罗素2000指数. US Small Cap Value is the Russell 2000 Value Index. US Real Estate is the Dow Jones US Select REIT Index. International Large Cap Value is the MSCI World ex USA Value Index (net dividends). International Small Cap Value is the MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index (net dividends). Emerging Markets is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net dividends). Five-Year US Government Fixed is the Bloomberg Barclays US TIPS Index 1–5 Years.
8. Should I make changes to my portfolio based on what I’m hearing in the news?
Daily market news and commentary can challenge your investment discipline. 一些信息引发了人们对未来的担忧, while others tempt you to chase the latest investment fad. 如果标题是令人不安的，考虑来源，并试图保持一个长期的观点.
9. 那么，我该怎么做呢?
We can offer expertise and guidance to help you focus on actions that 添加 value. Focusing on what you can control can lead to a better investment experience.
- Create an investment plan to fit your needs and risk tolerance.
- Structure a portfolio along the dimensions of expected returns.
- 全球多样化.
- 管理费用、营业额和税收.
- 在市场跌宕起伏中保持自律.
Mark F. 托莱多,CFA is a Partner at Chicago Partners Wealth Advisors. 他从事财富管理工作超过35年，帮助数百名个人和基金会创建了更好的财富管理解决方案.
问题2:样本包括截至12月31日的15年期间开始时的美国基金, 2016. 在评估期开始时，每个基金都是相对于晨星公司为该基金类别指定的基准进行评估的. Surviving funds are those with return observations for every month of the sample period. 赢家基金是那些存活下来的基金，它们在这段期间的累计净回报超过了各自的晨星分类基准.
问题3:每年年底, funds are sorted within their category based on their five-year total return. 收益最高的四分之一(25%)的基金在第二年根据一年的业绩再次进行评估，以确定保持最高四分之一排名的基金的百分比. The analysis is repeated each year from 2007–2016. The chart shows average persistence of top-quartile funds during the 10-year period.
问题2和3:美国的开放式共同基金数据来自晨星公司和芝加哥大学证券价格研究中心(CRSP). Index funds and fund-of-funds are excluded from the sample. 罗素指数的版权. 花旗固定收益指数©2017由花旗集团. 的年代&P数据由Standard提供 & Poor 's Index Services Group.
重要的披露信息
请记住 that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, 投资策略, 或产品(包括由Chicago Partners investment Group LLC(简称“CP”)推荐或实施的投资和/或投资策略), 或任何与投资无关的内容, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, 或证明成功. 由于各种因素, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. 此外, 您不应假设本博客中包含的任何讨论或信息作为收到, 或者作为替代品, 来自CP的个性化投资建议. 请记住 如果你是CP客户, 建议CP仍是你的责任, 以书面形式, 如果您的个人/财务状况或投资目标有任何变化，以审查/评估/修改十大娱乐老平台之前的建议和/或服务, 或者你愿意强加给我, 添加, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. 读者对于上述讨论的任何具体问题是否适用于他/她的个人情况有任何疑问, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. CP is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. 如有要求，十大娱乐老平台可提供一份商业顾问委员会目前的书面披露小册子，其中讨论十大娱乐老平台的咨询服务和费用. 请注意: CP does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, 及时性, 适用性, 完整性, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to CP’s web site or blog or incorporated herein, 并对任何此类内容不负任何责任. 所有这些信息仅为方便起见而提供，所有用户都应得到相应的指导.
2017年12月14日
Focusing on what you can control can lead to a better investment experience.
Whether you’ve been investing for decades or are just getting started, 在你投资之旅的某个时刻，你可能会问自己下面的一些问题. Trying to answer these questions may be intimidating. 虽然这不是一个详尽的列表，但希望它能阐明一些关键原则, 使用数据和推理，从长远来看，这可能有助于提高你投资成功的几率.
1. What sort of competition do I face as an investor?
The market is an effective information-processing machine. 数以百万计的市场参与者每天买卖证券，他们带来的实时信息有助于确定价格.
这意味着竞争很激烈，任何人都很难预测市场价格, even professional money managers (see question 2 for more on this). 不过，这对投资者来说是个好消息. 而不是将投资策略建立在寻找定价“不正确”的证券上,相反，投资者可以依靠市场价格信息来帮助建立他们的投资组合(参见问题5)。.
2. What are my chances of picking an investment fund that survives and outperforms?
Flip a coin and your odds of getting heads or tails are 50/50. 从历史上看, 选择一只15年后仍在左右的投资基金的几率是差不多的. 至于表现出众，可能性更大. 市场的定价权不利于那些试图通过选股或择时获利的基金经理. One needn’t look further than real-world results to see this. 基于的研究, 在过去15年里，只有17%的美国股票共同基金和18%的固定收益基金幸存下来，并超过了它们的基准.
Source: *Mutual Fund Landscape 2017, Dimensional Fund Advisors. 研究的重要细节见附录. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
3. 如果我选择一只基金是因为它过去表现出色，这是否意味着它将来也会表现出色?
Some investors select mutual funds based on past returns. 然而, 研究表明，在过去五年回报率最高的四分之一(25%)的大多数基金在接下来的一年里并没有保持最高四分之一的排名. In other words, past performance offers little insight into a fund’s future returns.
Source: *Mutual Fund Landscape 2017, Dimensional Fund Advisors. 研究的重要细节见附录. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
4. Do I have to outsmart the market to be a successful investor?
Financial markets have rewarded long-term investors. People expect a positive return on the capital they invest, 和历史, 股票和债券市场带来的财富增长足以抵消通胀的影响. Instead of fighting markets, let them work for you.
美国小型股指数是CRSP 6-10指数. 美国大型股是S&P 500指数. Long-Term Government Bonds is the IA SBBI US LT Govt TR USD, Treasury Bills is the IA SBBI US 30 Day TBill TR USD, US Inflation is measured as changes in the US Consumer Price Index.
5. 有没有更好的方法来建立作品集?
Academic research has identified these equity and fixed income dimensions, which point to differences in expected returns among securities. 而不是试图猜测市场价格, 相反，投资者可以通过围绕这些维度构建投资组合来追求更高的预期回报.
Relative price is measured by the price-to-book ratio; value stocks are those with lower price-to-book ratios. 盈利能力是一种衡量当前盈利能力的方法，其基础信息来自个别公司的损益表.
6. 国际投资适合我吗?
Diversification helps reduce risks that have no expected return, but diversifying only within your home market may not be enough. Instead, global diversification can broaden your investment opportunity set. 通过持有一个全球多元化的投资组合, investors are well positioned to seek returns wherever they occur.
S&截至12月31日的P 500指数和MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index)可投资市场指数(IMI), 2016. 的年代&P数据由Standard提供 & Poor 's Index Services Group.
7. Will making frequent changes to my portfolio help me achieve investment success?
十大娱乐老平台很难(如果不是不可能的话)知道哪个细分市场会在不同时期表现出众.
相应的, it’s better to avoid market timing calls and other unnecessary changes that can be costly. 允许对短期市场状况的情绪或观点影响长期投资决策可能会导致令人失望的结果.
美国大型股是S&P 500指数. US Large Cap Value is the Russell 1000 Value Index. 美国小型股指数是罗素2000指数. US Small Cap Value is the Russell 2000 Value Index. US Real Estate is the Dow Jones US Select REIT Index. International Large Cap Value is the MSCI World ex USA Value Index (net dividends). International Small Cap Value is the MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Value Index (net dividends). Emerging Markets is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net dividends). Five-Year US Government Fixed is the Bloomberg Barclays US TIPS Index 1–5 Years.
8. Should I make changes to my portfolio based on what I’m hearing in the news?
Daily market news and commentary can challenge your investment discipline. 一些信息引发了人们对未来的担忧, while others tempt you to chase the latest investment fad. 如果标题是令人不安的，考虑来源，并试图保持一个长期的观点.
9. 那么，我该怎么做呢?
We can offer expertise and guidance to help you focus on actions that 添加 value. Focusing on what you can control can lead to a better investment experience.
- Create an investment plan to fit your needs and risk tolerance.
- Structure a portfolio along the dimensions of expected returns.
- 全球多样化.
- 管理费用、营业额和税收.
- 在市场跌宕起伏中保持自律.
Mark F. 托莱多,CFA is a Partner at Chicago Partners Wealth Advisors. 他从事财富管理工作超过35年，帮助数百名个人和基金会创建了更好的财富管理解决方案.
问题2:样本包括截至12月31日的15年期间开始时的美国基金, 2016. 在评估期开始时，每个基金都是相对于晨星公司为该基金类别指定的基准进行评估的. Surviving funds are those with return observations for every month of the sample period. 赢家基金是那些存活下来的基金，它们在这段期间的累计净回报超过了各自的晨星分类基准.
问题3:每年年底, funds are sorted within their category based on their five-year total return. 收益最高的四分之一(25%)的基金在第二年根据一年的业绩再次进行评估，以确定保持最高四分之一排名的基金的百分比. The analysis is repeated each year from 2007–2016. The chart shows average persistence of top-quartile funds during the 10-year period.
问题2和3:美国的开放式共同基金数据来自晨星公司和芝加哥大学证券价格研究中心(CRSP). Index funds and fund-of-funds are excluded from the sample. 罗素指数的版权. 花旗固定收益指数©2017由花旗集团. 的年代&P数据由Standard提供 & Poor 's Index Services Group.
重要的披露信息
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, 投资策略, 或产品(包括投资和/或投资策略推荐或由芝加哥合作伙伴投资集团有限责任公司(“CP”), 或任何与投资无关的内容, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, 或证明成功. 由于各种因素, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. 此外, 你不应认为本评注中所包含的任何讨论或信息是作为收到, 或者作为替代品, 来自CP的个性化投资建议. 请记得联系CP, 以书面形式, 如果您的个人/财务状况或投资目标有任何变化，以审查/评估/修改十大娱乐老平台之前的建议和/或服务, 或者你愿意强加给我, 添加, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. CP既不是律师事务所也不是注册会计师事务所，评论内容的任何部分都不应被理解为法律或会计建议. 如有需要，十大娱乐老平台将继续保留一份商业顾问委员会目前的书面披露手册，其中讨论十大娱乐老平台的咨询服务和费用.